Yesterday, Turkish PM Erdoğan’s speech aired live all over the world which was very important to understand Turkey’s approach. That speech showed us that we are on the edge of war. Also, what can be understood from PM’s speech is that Turkish strategy mostly depends on Syrian side: As long as Bashar al-Assad keeps being aggresive, there is no light at the end of the tunnel for him.
Yesterday when I heard PM saying “We will continue to support opposition in Syria until Assad goes down” I suddenly tweeted from my personal twitter account; “We will face new terrorist attacks unfortunately.” Today, papers say “4 killed in clashes in southern Turkey (Siirt).” Well, no surprise there. The PKK (terrorists) wing that organize attacks nowadays are deployed in Syrian soils and they are supported by Assad. Syria have been a ‘sweet home’ to terrorism against Turkey for a long time in the 90’s; hosting terrorist leaders for some time until Turkey’s threat of invasion. Now in 2012, Assad provides anything they need…
As a response to PM’s support to opposition in Syria, Assad plays his terrorism card which makes me think that will cause a war in the end given the current jet crisis. Moreover Turkey changed ‘rules of engagement’ yesterday. Any military element near the border will be considered as military target and will be hit without warning.
Taking into account any possible military engagement pops out the question for its legal base. For this reason Turkey try to legitimize itself in case of war. Because without support of EU or US (hence NATO) if Turkey feel forced to fight, consequences would be beyond imagination. Plan works out for now. Every detail, every record about the incident is presented and explained to NATO. War is not the first option but, if forced unfortunately it will be the last option. It depends on Assad’s attitude.
A quick sincere apology, convenient compensation would be a relief and would put war out of the question. However, Assad is not even close. His strategy seems to be ‘firing’ people with nationalism, unite them against a foreign enemy and change the target which is he. Therefore as can be seen clearly, Syrian strategy will determine Turkish strategy.
Columnist, Mustafa Akyol referring a part of PM’s speech says in his article today;
Erdoğan said “Any military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria by posing a security risk will be regarded as a threat, and will be treated as a military target.”
That means that this plane incident is not a “casus belli,” or a cause of war, but future acts of aggression by the Syrian regime may be. So, the thugs of Damascus should behave.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has warned Syria that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have been given instructions to treat any approaching Syrian military unit as a threat, a sign that the Syrian crisis sparked a bilateral conflict between the two neighbors after Syrian forces shot down a Turkish reconnaissance jet in the Mediterranean…. Click For More
Syria laid an ambush for the Turkish warplane in revenge for the defection of the Syrian Air Force pilot Col. Hassan Maray al-Hamadeh to Jordan a day earlier with his MiG-21 warplane. Officials in Damascus are certain his defection was organized by US and Turkish intelligence.
DEBKAfile has won world-class awards and is frequently quoted in the world media and contemporary documentary literature as a leading authority on geopolitical issues.
DEBKAfile was cited Best of the Web in 2002 by Forbes; selected Hot Site byUSAToday, profiled in the New York Observer (A Web Site With the Inside Dope on the Middle East), Time Magazine, Le Monde, Paris, Corriere della Sera, Milan, and The London Evening Standard, Wired News (DEBKA: Conflict’s Drudge Report?), NEW MEDIA (For the real skinny on the Afghan story).
In 2002, DEBKAfile was one of four finalists nominated by Webby (Oscar of the Web) for its annual award in the Internet news category.
The BBC has placed DEBKAfile on its list of monitored sites.
Bloomberg recommends DEBKAfile to its subscribers.
Our experts appear on Fox TV and radio, US Public Radio.
A Turkish [unarmed] F-4 plane was gone missing in the Syria early in the morning of friday. Later PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan said there was unclear points so it was too early to comment. After 2 hours of security meeting, official statement said that the warplane was shot down by Syria and pilots are still missing. While we were watching the TV for the comments of experts, Syrian officials made a statment saying that, “Turkish jet was 1 km inside of the Syrian soil therefore it was shot by an anti-aircraft.”
So after a long time of uncertainty today, it is official that Syria shot down a warplane of a friendly country. So what happens next?
Turkey is a member of NATO. Any threat against any member of NATO is bussines of every member. So this attack is not just against Turkey but also against whole NATO members. It is clear demonstration of hostility. I expect NATO to hold a meeting and try to take a decision.
It was really disturbing that foreign press was always pushing Turkey against a war with Syria. Especially U.S. media… Turkish government’s effort to stay away from a possible war was admirable. I appreciate the attitude. What happened today is huge however Turkish Government kept cool and won a point whilst Syrian side acting ridiculously incautious. It’s like they are asking for a war that never should happen, but if they force it, eventually they will have one. In case of war, Assad will face a strong military force which must be an unpleasant situation while the whole world against him already. It is irrational to start a war, isn’t it? So why shot an unarmed friendly plane?
No reason ! I tried to answer that question but… no… there is not a single rational reason. A few of columnist, both foreign and Turkish, indicated a conspiracy: ” It is Isreal who made the decision.” Quite horrific ! Hope that’s not true.
Another point, I presume U.S. naval forces (sixth fleet) which has presence in the Mediterranean and U.K. forces based in Cyprus will have something to say.
To sum up, in my opinion this attack may lead to a war that is inspired by international war lobby. Long shot, I hear you saying… Why not? Take a look at Iraq war?
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an experienced figure in the international arena. It takes a lot to take him down. I believe he will do what is necesary to keep country away from war. This is what should be done.
I will continue to notify you about updates.
Turkey woke up to face this ugly news in this morning. After a big attack in 2007, Dağlıca is hit again by terrorists for the second time with heavy weapons. It is reported that 8 Turkish soldiers killed and 16 wounded. Also 10 terrorists killed by Turkish forces.
Even though Dağlıca is 1800 km away from where I live, I feel the fear as it happens here. Yesterday, there was police blockade in a pretty large area. That area is almost 1 km away from my home. Police found 10 kg of C-4 on the street and enclosed the area so that they can seize the terrorist. After a successful operation they captured the ‘bastard’.
Can you believe it? 10 kg C-4 explosive just 1 km away from where you live… Terrorism in Turkey is more than just an American paranoia. This is actually happening. There is a war. People are being killed, millions of lives threatened…
Since 1984 more than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict.
When Micheal Jackson passed away people were very sad all around the world. But I believe only few have performed religious rituals for him. Hold on now…
When he died, an interfaith dialogue foundation, ‘Mıhallemi interfaith dialogue’ , from Mardin – Midyat Turkey performed salaat for his soul. This was just the first step.
When you visit Mardin, now you can see a memorial which performs ‘moon walk.’ 11 people worked for the memorial for 6 months. There is no other like this one in the world.
PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suggested that abortion is murder. After his statement, whole country just forgot the ‘new constitiution, EU Relations etc..’ and put their effort into this topic.
Even though abortion ban is not an unfamiliar topic in Europe and US, it is highly strange for Turks. If I am not mistaken this is the first time Turks discuss about it.
Abortion out of nowhere
For those of you who have no idea about Turkey, first thing you must know is that change happens so fast in this country. You go buy a newspaper at 9 a.m. it becomes old at that hour. So as usual, this abortion topic popped out so fast. People had no idea about this. People divided into two as can be imagined. Some says, yes abortion should be banned some says no. Let’s take a look at different reactions among Turkish society, and then I will explain my own idea.
PM defends himself saying we should increase our population. If not, in the future we will end up as Europe. He also has a policy which supports his argument. He wants families to have at leats 3 children for the sake of future population.
Yes, abortion should be banned
People who support this idea are most likely AKP (Ruling Party) voters. They had no idea why they support the ban in the first weeks of discussion. There is no religious background or something else too, just nothing. They think it is true because PM says so. Ministry of Health said: ” Women who are raped should keep their babies either. If they can not take care of baby after birth the state will take on the responsibility” Arguments like this were unhealthy and ridiculous.
In the following weeks they have developed more solid arguements but in the begining their behaviour was moronic.
No, you can’t do this
We can categories ‘No front’ as ‘chronic opposition’ . If AKP says we will colonize the Venus and our scientist will create an endless power source from a mineral which exist in the Venus, they will say NO. I believe they would march in Taksim with banners saying FREE VENUS. They are opposed to everyting that AKP do. So this people don’t consider the abortion on a social or biological basis, instead they are more concerned with politics. Here is why they say no:
- ” Abortion is a right “
- “My body, my decision “
- ” AKP take your hands off my body “
As you see there are no reasonable argument. ‘No front’ have orginized many events to protest. Many columnists supported them. But the columnists are as idot as they are. They keep accusing AKP for acting with religious concerns. So as the ‘Yes Front’ , ‘No Front’ has moronic ideas.
They just couldn’t take this discussion to the right ground. No one was talking about ‘the life’ of the unborn. It drives me crazy. This situation lasted for weeks. Can you believe it?
In my opinion
There is no religious motivation for banning or allowing abortion. People keep saying yes and no but they really have no idea. In the first place I had no idea too. But after I googled, I have seen that there are many different approaches in the Europe. In my opinion if baby is able to born without any physical or mental damage to mother and him/herself it shouln’t be aborted. So I think that on-demand abortion is murder unless…
On-Demand abortion can be allowed if only, the baby have not vital signs meaning that if it is not alive yet. When it is alive I think it is murder to undertake an abortion. And it is doctors call to say if it is alive. Becasue if that baby is alive;
- ” It is not your right to kill him/her “
- ” It is your body but death sentence decision still not yours to make “
On the other hand, I think abortion should be an option for the mother (we never think about father) in such cases like ;
- Dangerous sitiuations for the health of mother or child.
- If mother can not afford to take of baby – Socioeconomic reasons.
So, I find a gray area on my own. I think there will be people who are against me. I may be mistaken at some points but at least I am discussing it on the right basis and I am not a blind fanatic. Health, social situation, and right to live… headlines people never care to talk about. Just say yes if you are AKP supporter, say no if you are against AKP and accuse them for restraining freedom.
Welcome to Turkey. Enjoy the country.