The War Game That Predicted Gaziantep Blast

Bomb planted car exploded in Turkey – Gaziantep, 21 August 2012 predicted by Brookings Institute. You can read the full report here.

UNRAVELING THE SYRIA MESS:

A CRISIS SIMULATION OF SPILLOVER FROM
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR

KENNETH M. POLLACK, FREDERICK W. KAGAN, KIMBERLY KAGAN, AND MARISA C. SULLIVAN
Read the rest of this entry »

Advertisements

The Equation and The War

9 dead including 4 children by terrorist attack in Gaziantep – Turkey

There is not a single day for us without reading deadly terrorist attacks on papers. According to papers terrorists have changed their tactical movements. They are not going to hit and run anymore however they are going to try to capture cities. When you think about it, given the situation in Syria and tension between western world and Iran and how Turkish gov’t reacts to the matter, it is clear that there have been changes in equation of power  and state of affairs.

Let me break it down for you.

Few days ago one of the Iranian ‘so called’ supreme leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered terrorist attacks against west and its allies…. Allies… Hımmm… Oh yea, America, Britain, zionists, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and…. wait for it… Turkey!

Few days later, a bomb planted car blasted in Turkey-Gaziantep and killed 9. Including 4 children. Later on, Iranian National Security deputy said, responsible for the attack is Ankara. Also added, paraphrasing,  if Ankara keeps supporting Free Syrian Army it will continue to risk its own security. Do I need to add anything else? Isn’t it as clear as day?

The equation and the war…. both changed. MIT (Turkish National Intelligence Service) is the most actively working intelligence agency around region. even better than CIA or MI-6. I occasionally have a chance to speak with some friends who are involved. This is what they say. So, what happens in Iran or Syria, doesn’t stay in Iran or Syria for a long time, Turkish gov’t have enormous amount of information on the both countries. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his officers are well aware of Iran and Bashar supporting terrorism. Now you may ask  if so, why Turkish side don’t do anything? Patience is the key word I believe. From this point on, every anti-democratic regime in Middle East is considered as a threat by Turkey. And eventually when plan of  invasion of Iran is completed Turkey will play the part it supposed to play. Turkish gov’t, as advised by U.S. showing patience for now. I believe in return of Turkish support against Iran, U.S. will actually fight PKK and use its power to stop financial support coming from European countries. At least this is what is promised.

In my opinion Ankara will not do the same mistake it did on invasion of Iraq. Because it cost a lot. If Turkey entered to Northen Iraq in 2003 it probably have ended terrorist threat.(As realized so late by Turkish public opinion) In the end Iran lost a valuable ally by pushing Turkey away and adopting murderer Bashar. This is how equation is changed and how new war is shaped. I don’t believe Iran war is away. There are just small problems of financing according to Netanyahu. Count down might stop after U.S.  elections. To conclude the problem, I believe AKP or a new Turkish government, doesn’t matter, will do what is necessary